With hindsight, we are all fonts of wisdom. The problem is that
decisions have to be made in the here and now, and the trick,
according to this useful book, is understanding where
decision-making processes fall down and how they can be
improved.
Looking at a wide range of business, political and military
failures, Finkelstein, Whitehead and Campbell apply some systematic
thinking to a neglected area, adding some insights from psychology
and neuroscience. They find that one of the most common sources of
error is referring to past experiences that turn out to be
inappropriate. Personal biases are another obstruction to
clear-headed analysis, and executives can have personal reasons for
a corporate decision, including their own financial gain.
The authors believe that most decision-making processes can be
improved, and come up with a sensible list of suggestions. Not
prejudging a situation is a good start, and a method for collecting
all pertinent information is a good idea (although knowing how much
data is sufficient can be tricky).
One possibility is to establish a 'devil's advocate' office
designed to provide alternate views. But its role must be carefully
defined, and it must be able to report directly to the key
decision-makers.
Finkelstein, Whitehead and Campbell accept that there are
possible dangers in their ideas. Organised debate can easily turn
into factionalism; an attempt to gain more information can become
paralysis by analysis. And a process can tick all the right boxes
and still come up with an answer that proves to be wrong. There are
no guarantees, but the analysis and proposals offered here can help
to improve the odds.
- Derek Parker
